In a town of crazed fans for a mediocre team owned by a egomaniac who sues fans who can no longer afford their years-long contracts for expensive seats, how long do you think it will be until The Washington Post tries this.
Ever the astute politician, former President Bill Clinton has got this right.
Clinton predicted "the minute health care reform passed, President Obama’s approval ratings would go up 10 points." And he said they would go up 20 points next year once Americans saw that none of the bad things Republicans said would happen came true.
A 20-point gain is a bit of a stretch, perhaps. But it makes sense that, while the extreme right will find something else to wail about, once healthcare reform is understood not to include gassing granny, most folks will be happy with it, assuming that the bill is written so that most of the reforms are immediately effective. Once people start finding affordable healthcare, the better off Obama’s popularity numbers will be.
But the devil is in the details. One thing I haven’t heard discussed is the cost of the insurance for people in the upper middle class. Once you get passed $66,000, which seems to be the cut off point for government aid, cost can be an issue, even for folks making more than $100,000 per year. The insurance companies won’t be able to deny you for pre-existing conditions, but can they raise your rates so high it won’t be affordable? Can they offer “affordable” insurance premiums but with high deductibles?
Congrats to the Prez. I’ve urged this more than once.
Whether it’s President Obama or anyone else in public life, they need to start holding journalists accountable for their coverage, which is to a large degree the result of laziness and lack of editorial leadership.
I’m glad to see the president calling the media out on how it covers the news – and sometimes makes it. Obama hit four of the five interviews yesterday with his take on the news.
I just learned that my feeds link on my News Commonsense blog was incorrect. It’s now fixed.
I just learned that my feeds link was incorrect. It’s now fixed.
They are only three decisions, all of which could be characterized as acts lacking courage. But Obama’s recent decision to scrap a missile defense system located in Poland or the Czech Republic and now his decision to tell N.Y. Governor Paterson to not run for re-election and to publicly back Sen. Bennett in Colorado who is facing a primary challenger are three acts that I think took courage. The first because it plays into the meme about Dems being weak on defense and the second because he’s getting overtly political on the type of Democrat he wants. He is already backing Arlen Specter but you can argue that was designed to say thanks for switching parties.
He may say he doesn’t like partisan politics, but he plays it.
The Deeds folks are no doubt celebrating this morning’s Washington Post poll that shows him narrowing the race for Virginia governor. His attacks on McDonnell’s extreme right-wing views are working. Let’s pause for a moment and relish this development: Democrats gain by pointing out the values of conservatives. We’ve come a long way, baby.
Deeds is gaining with “independent” women. I know that probably means those who don’t afiliate with one political part or the other, but I think there’s another way to look at it. Independent, in the more general sense of the word, women who are Republicans can bring along their moderate GOP or conservatic Democratic hisbands. Independent wives tend to get their way a lot fo the time, beleive me, I know. With plenty of time left in this campaign, they will work on their sposes and friends to vote for Deeds, unless McDonnell can turn the tide.
One message Deeds needs to continue to press is that when McDonnell wrote his thesis, he already was married and had, I beleive, two daughters. So looking into their eyes, he saw a role for them – barefoot, pregnant and in the kitchen. Deeds will need to make the conenction between McDonnel’s thesis and where he was a that point in his life.
Deeds is leading big in northern Virginia, so obviously turnout will be important here. Expect to see flyers targeting women here until election day. After all, in the poll only 46% said they’ve heard “a good amount” about the thesis. There are more to be educated. Even though only less than one percent beleive the thesis is the most important issue, there are two reasons to ignore that statistic. One, because it’s not the most important doesn’t mean it couldn’t influenec a voter. And two, not many people will admit it’s the “most important,” even if it is. Also, it will be critical for Deeds to come out with an ad that says “Bob McDonnell says his views on women have changed. Then why did he introduce 34 bills restricting abortion while he was in the House of Delegates – which he was until only four years ago?” One of the focus group participants mention that what McDonnell wrote 20 years ago isn’t as inportnat as what he did. Thirty-four anti-women bills is what he did.
Deeds is running less than I had hoped in rural Virginia. With his slight drawl and gun rights’ votes, I thought he could peel off some of the Republican’s natural support. Maybe spending mor time down there might help. Maybe he can talk about how he wants to ensure we have enouigh revenues for schools down there and pojtn ot that McDonnell’s transportation plan would cripple their schools. MAybe he could talk about the economic development he wants to bring to those areas, suggesting that he might lure some of NOVA’s business to those areas of the state.
If we have a healthcare bill signed by November, adn if the talk in DC is about strong financial reforms, we might see an uptick in enthusiasm by Democratic voters and a better response from independnet moderates.
The sidebar that discusses the focus groups incldues this intersting statement.
Many in both groups described traffic as their top concern — perhaps reinforced by the rush-hour traffic they battled to get to the Wednesday evening focus group meetings in Fairfax. But several expressed a deep cynicism about their political leaders’ ability and will to solve the region’s congestion issues. Some were worried that Deeds, as a native of western Virginia, would not be sympathetic enough to the transit needs of Northern Virginia.
…The economy and jobs are voters’ top concerns in the election, according to the new poll, but few in the focus groups expressed a strong view on which candidate could better lead the state out of its economic doldrums. Lisa Schumann, 36, of Bristow said, "I think that I need more information to say." She also wondered how much a governor could do to make a difference. [emphasis added]
Here is where Deeds has even more possibilities. I’ll bet he would get a bump of five percent in Northern Virginia if we would talk honestly about taxes to improve transportation. I’ve already written about how he could frame this. I’m under no illusion that he will tak honestly about transportation funding, as I’m sure he’s hearing an earful from spineless Democrats who are telling him he shouldn’t go near the issue.
Deeds could also make the link between what a Democratic governor can get from a Democratic administration in terms of new jobs and the race. Fact is governors can’t do a whole lot to help the state besides give away the store in terms of tax advantages to companies who bring business here. What we give away and what we gain in new jobs can be debated. Moreover, I’m not so sure that tax relief wins the day when a business and their workers can’t get around the state because of traffic.
David Gregory was just on Hardball and played a clip from his interview with President Obama that will air Sunday on “Meet the Press.” In the question, Gregory, as have many others, misrepresented what Carter said. I don’t have the transcript of Gregory’s interview yet, but what he said, to paraphrase, was “Carter attributes most of the opposition to you to racism,” and then asks Obama whether he agrees with that.
As we follow this story, I think we’re going to see that translation of Carter’s remarks take hold—that he blames most of the opposition to Obama on race. It will become fact the way the meme about Gore inventing the internet became.
Here’s what Carter said:
An overwhelming portion of the intensely demonstrated animosity toward President Obama is based on the fact that he is a black man, that he’s African-American.
I live in the South, and I have seen the South come a long way. And I have seen the rest of the country that shared the South’s attitude toward minority groups at that time, particularly African- Americans. That racism in connection still exists.
And I think it’s bubbled up to the surface because of a belief among many white people, not just in the South, but around the country, that African-Americans are not qualified to lead this great country. It’s an abominable circumstance and grieves me and concerns me very deeply.
What he’s saying is that a large majority of the people who are carrying the most offensive signs – showing Obama as a witch doctor (clearly racist) or calling him a traitor, a Communist, or wishing his death – are racists. If you look at the protests in Washington last weekend, the truly offensive signs were not among the majority, though there were quite a few of the distasteful “Bury Obamacare with Kennedy.” If you look listen to the raucous town hall meetings (which were the minority of town hall meetings, by the way) or viewed the signs outside those contentious arenas, most of them are not personally attacking Obama or are offensive. Hyperbolic, sure, but not offensive.
What Carter is saying is that only an “overwhelming portion of the intensely demonstrated animosity toward President Obama is” racist, not most of the opposition. He’s saying that a large portion of the small portion of protestors are racists.
UPDATE:
When I wrote the post below yesterday, I hadn’t seen this after the debate interview. It’s not pretty. This is why you can’t run away from an honest discussion of taxes. Robert McCarthy has more this morning.
Here’s another answer you could try, Creigh, to the question, “Will you raise taxes?”
“No governor can raise taxes without the consent of the governed. Mark Warner didn’t raise taxes. Gov. Warner saw a need, went across the Commonwealth to discuss that need with Virginians. They saw the need. They understood his reasons. And they backed him. But even then, he couldn’t raise taxes until the General Assembly agreed with him. They debated. They compromised, and they voted to raise taxes. When I’m elected, I will study our options, see how the economy is doing next year, discuss it with Virginians through the state and with their representatives to see if, together, we can come up with a plan that move us forward on an issue that concerns citizens greatly.”
Of course, that would take a backbone, which puts Democrats at a congenital disadvantage.
This morning’s debate wasn’t really illuminating, but it had its moments.
First, the award for the stupidest question, to be given to one of the local reporters who surely couldn’t hold a candle to the bright light that is David Gregory of “Meet the Press.” You guessed it. The oracle on high asks Creigh Deeds, “Are you an Obama Democrat?” Not really that far from “Do you think Rev. [Jeremiah] Wright loves America as much as you?” asked by George Stuffasockinhispuss. Gregory, oblivious to his own silliness, actually asked the question twice.
McDonnell still comes off as smoother, but borders on rehearsed and automated. Deed’s passion comes through, though others may see a tongue flapping in the wind. He loses his point occasionally. Both ignored questions so they further rebut a previous question, but McDonnell managed to do it without getting snickers from the Fairfax Chamber of Commerce audience, who, let’s face it, was more likely to favor him.
McDonnell effectively addressed the thesis question by citing his wife and especially his Iraq veteran daughter as examples of his support for working women. That didn’t deter Deeds, who recited the points from his ad several times. But he missed an opportunity. He could have addressed his opponent directly. “Bob, you say that the thesis is old hat, but your record of introducing 34 bills to restrict the right to abortions is very recent. Why did you introduce so many such bills? Do those bills reflect your attitude about women’s rights? Are you willing to explain to voters why that was so much of your legislative agenda? Are you afraid to address that question?”
The other thing that struck me is how fast each candidate talked, rattling off facts and figures that surely were lost on the many in the audience due to the acoustics and probably by a good number of people who will hear this online or on TV. McDonnell is smoother at fast talk, which gives Deeds an opportunity to appear more thoughtful by slowing down. That doesn’t mean accentuating his slight Southern drawl. But by slowing his speech and using pauses effectively, he could be a thoughtful counterweight to McDonnell’s patter. Deeds did sound more passionate but it bordered on frantic. These delivery issues are much more important than candidates think. If you talk slower, with “thoughtful” pauses, people can follow your arguments better.
Speaking slowly might also allow a candidate to say something none of them want to say. Ever since Walter Mondale said he was going to raise taxes, it has been an article of faith among politicians that they never say they’ll raise taxes, especially during a campaign. The man or woman hailed as the next Obama will be the one who can articulate a grown-up approach to taxes. The argument is not that hard to make in the case of Virginia’s transportation system. (In fact, in front of the Chamber, if either said he’d consider a tax increase they might have gotten a cheer out of the blue suit crowd–as long as it wasn’t business taxes.)
How do you make the case for tax increases? Some thoughts for starters….
Bottom line is we need to make that argument. I heard one Democratic leader say after the debate that “everyone in that room knows Deeds is open to a tax increase, but he can’t say it.” So do a lot of voters who are sitting on the fence. He needs the ones who may be open to a tax increase to fix transportation. But they won’t know what he plans to do until he tells them.
There may be another opening for Deeds in McDonnell’s antipathy towards unions. Many government workers are unionized. And I believe a lot of them live in Virginia.
Deeds missed another opportunity. When he mentions that McDonnell opposed Warner’s tax increases, he needs to tell Virginians where we’d be today without them. The hole would be much deeper and the cuts more draconian
One final note: I appreciate the nod Deeds gave to this blog, when he said he was a “commonsense Democrat.”
That’s what he meant, wasn’t it?
Here’s a great headline on a post on the FAIR blog: “Baucus Plan: No One Likes It, So It Must Be Good”
It attacks The Washington Post’s Ceci Connolly’s “analysis” of the bill. It also takes a swipe at USA Today’s coverage.