Tomorrow’s the day everyone will learn if taxes are the most important issue to Virginia voters. At least that’s what the media wants you to think.
Problem is, no matter happens tomorrow it will A) not tell us about voter mood because so few of them will show up, and B) not stop the media from harping on taxes.
A, because even if one or two of the anti-tax zealots win their primaries, will we really know that taxes were the issues? In the 67th district race where Gary Reese is widely suspected of being the most vulnerable of the incumbent “Gang of 17” Republicans who voted for the 2004 tax increase, his opponent Chris Craddock has harped on social issues as much as taxes. So will his election be a victory for bigotry or fiscal irresponsibility? It’s hard to tell.
But even if all the challenges fail, don’t expect Kaine and Kilgore to alter their “I’m for lowering taxes” mantra to change through the campaign. They know that the media are collectively too lazy not to harp on the taxes story. It’s convenient and measurable. Not only can you paint races as a choice between high taxes and low taxes, but you can even measure how high and how low, and without the bother of what that truly means.
And there are groups that won’t let the media focus on anything else. They know that the best way to work the media is to do the work for them. Give reporters all the facts and figures, even if the facts aren’t true and the figures lie, and most reporters will go on merrily regurgitating the press releases and dutifully quote the other side, if there is another side to taxes. Certainly Tim Kaine hasn’t led us to believe that there is another side to Kilgore’s call for tax cuts.
So Washington Post reporter Mike Shear gets front page real estate to lead us all to believe that taxes is the over-arching issue.
Virginia’s state politicians will face the voters Tuesday for the first time since the historic battle over taxes in 2004, competing in primary campaigns that are testing the depth of the public’s anger over that fight and its willingness to accept higher taxes for more public services.
Margaret Edds thinks candidates are too scared.
Political campaigns in Virginia are stuck in a mode that says: Don’t chance it with voters. After former Gov. Jim Gilmore swept to victory in 1997 on a three-word plank — “No Car Tax” — few candidates want to risk messing with the framework.
It’s safer to join the pack than to try to connect the dots between low taxes and clogged roads, low taxes and a polluted Chesapeake Bay, low taxes and below-average teacher pay. Until some daredevil wins by elevating collectivism over self-interest, don’t expect a change.
Maybe change should start with the media. Maybe if they gave us more articles that said what most people already know: the debate shouldn’t start with how much it costs — either for taxes or what they can buy — until we start looking at the problems more deeply than journalists fear to tread. What do we want from government?
The real number to look at is not who wins by how much but by how little. Most pundits are predicting a 10% turnout, abysmal enough. If a challenger can’t get more people than that excited, I wouldn’t read much into it. If it’s significantly less, I think the message is clear: a pox on both your houses.