{"id":692,"date":"2005-06-15T11:52:39","date_gmt":"2005-06-15T15:52:39","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/000af36.netsolhost.com\/wordpress1\/2005\/06\/15\/more_thoughts_o\/"},"modified":"2005-06-15T11:52:39","modified_gmt":"2005-06-15T15:52:39","slug":"more_thoughts_o","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/griendling.com\/wordpress1\/2005\/06\/15\/more_thoughts_o\/","title":{"rendered":"More Thoughts On the Primaries"},"content":{"rendered":"

Some Democrats are wringing their hands<\/a> over Leslie Byrnes nomination for Lt. Governor. And as I suggested last night, even though they admit less than stellar results, some conservatives think<\/a> that by raising the tax issue, they won a victory. (Read the comments.) That\u2019s like saying that because you can field a team that gets trounced, you are somehow a winner. <\/p>\n

Regarding Byrne, she has a lot to overcome. The impression many have is that she is somehow arrogant. She\u2019s never struck me that way. But then except for a couple of conversations, I don\u2019t have any greater knowledge of her demeanor than the average voter. The deciding factors will be how she handles herself in public, what strategy she employs and how the media characterizes her. If I were her, I\u2019d be battling the media from day one whenever they write off the race and a classic fight between liberals and conservatives. She\u2019s got to get reporters to focus on issues.<\/p>\n

In fact, she has an opportunity to test some new positioning. I\u2019ve heard she\u2019s done it in some speeches, talking about Democratic values in a different way. At the very least, she\u2019s not afraid of talking about values. Unlike Kaine, however, she seem true to Democratic principles. I\u2019d like her to really focus on GOP women. As the only woman on the statewide tickets, she can appeal to GOP women who worry about abortion being outlawed and are turned off by the GOP\u2019s rhetoric of intolerance. She might get traction focusing on higher ed and its accessibility. Higher income families worry that their kids can\u2019t get into the best schools and lower income families worry that their kids can\u2019t afford it. I don\u2019t know if she can be a nurturing mama but it\u2019s worth a shot. Turnout in NOVA will be the critical factor.<\/p>\n

I worry that Kaine\u2019s candidacy will suppress turnout. Nobody I talk to seems excited about him. <\/p>\n

If indeed taxes are not the issue with an overriding majority of voters, what then drives them in November? For the conservative middle, if it isn\u2019t gays or abortion, then what? That\u2019s the critical question Kaine has to ask himself. Transportation and land use certainly are important to the metro areas, but what about the rural ones? Again, it may be education. Clearly a college degree is more important than ever. Can the Dems craft some compelling policies that provide opportunities for all? And can they acknowledge and address the values of those who find our coarsening culture offensive, without sounding condescending, opportunistic or censorial? That to me is an intriguing challenge. One can\u2019t help reading stories like this<\/a>, without thinking that TV, CDs, movies and a generally permissive society are breeding a generation of moral degenerates. But because liberals oppose censorship shouldn\u2019t mean we can\u2019t call upon purveyors of such trash for responsibility. Even if government can\u2019t provide the solution, that doesn\u2019t mean politicians shouldn\u2019t join the chorus.<\/p>\n

Responsible spending can still be an attractive issue, but Dems haven\u2019t figured out how to talk about it, much less provide solutions, without sounding anti-tax. Maybe a \u201cfive-point plan\u201d to control spending would be helpful.<\/p>\n

But the bottom line message of yesterday\u2019s election is that people are turned off to the current political dialogue. Turnout was less than the pessimistic predictions. And it\u2019s responsible articulation that might engage them. That\u2019s where Potts comes in. Even though he hasn\u2019t offered any specifics, his \u201cpox on both their houses\u201d message might resonate enough with moderate GOPers and Dems alike to hurt Kaine\/Byrne\/Deeds. And keep in mind that money didn\u2019t seem to matter. Petersen far outraised his opponents, but lost to two women in this paternalistic state. Connaughton lost badly despite a dead heat in money. Baril\u2019s strong donations from business groups didn\u2019t seem to level the playing field. Enough money is important. Winning the dollar race doesn\u2019t translate to victory, however. I hope party officials and strategists learn that lesson.<\/p>\n

Of course, it may not be message and platform, either. Organization comes into play (see Englin and Craddock).<\/p>\n

But for the Dems, poor turnout means defeat. It\u2019s time to take some risks.<\/p>\n

As widely echoed by Dems, thank our lucky starts Connaughton lost. He\u2019d be governor in 2010. Which may not be a bad thing, but the Dems would surely lose.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Some Democrats are wringing their hands over Leslie Byrnes nomination for Lt. Governor. And as I suggested last night, even though they admit less than stellar results, some conservatives think that by raising the tax issue, they won a victory. (Read the comments.) That\u2019s like saying that because you can field a team that gets… Read More<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[1],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/griendling.com\/wordpress1\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/692"}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/griendling.com\/wordpress1\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/griendling.com\/wordpress1\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/griendling.com\/wordpress1\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/griendling.com\/wordpress1\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=692"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"http:\/\/griendling.com\/wordpress1\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/692\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/griendling.com\/wordpress1\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=692"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/griendling.com\/wordpress1\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=692"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/griendling.com\/wordpress1\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=692"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}