{"id":188,"date":"2009-09-20T12:17:57","date_gmt":"2009-09-20T16:17:57","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/000af36.netsolhost.com\/wordpress1\/2009\/09\/20\/deeds-mcdonnell-poll\/"},"modified":"2009-09-20T12:17:57","modified_gmt":"2009-09-20T16:17:57","slug":"deeds-mcdonnell-poll","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/griendling.com\/wordpress1\/2009\/09\/20\/deeds-mcdonnell-poll\/","title":{"rendered":"Deeds-McDonnell Poll"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Deeds folks are no doubt celebrating this morning\u2019s Washington Post poll<\/a> that shows him narrowing the race for Virginia governor.  His attacks on McDonnell\u2019s extreme right-wing views are working.  Let\u2019s pause for a moment and relish this development:  Democrats gain<\/em> by pointing out the values of conservatives.  We\u2019ve come a long way, baby.<\/p>\n

Deeds is gaining with \u201cindependent\u201d women.  I know that probably means those who don\u2019t afiliate with one political part or the other, but I think there\u2019s another way to look at it.  Independent, in the more general sense of the word, women who are Republicans can bring along their moderate GOP or conservatic Democratic hisbands.  Independent wives tend to get their way a lot fo the time, beleive me, I know.  With plenty of time left in this campaign, they will work on their sposes and friends to vote for Deeds, unless McDonnell can turn the tide.<\/p>\n

One message Deeds needs to continue to press is that when McDonnell wrote his thesis, he already was married and had, I beleive, two daughters.  So looking into their eyes, he saw a role for them \u2013 barefoot, pregnant and in the kitchen.  Deeds will need to make the conenction between McDonnel\u2019s thesis and where he was a that point in his life.<\/p>\n

Deeds is leading big in northern Virginia, so obviously turnout will be important here.  Expect to see flyers targeting women here until election day.  After all, in the poll only 46% said they\u2019ve heard \u201ca good amount\u201d about the thesis.  There are more to be educated.  Even though only less than one percent beleive the thesis is the most important issue, there are two reasons to ignore that statistic.  One, because it\u2019s not the most important doesn\u2019t mean it couldn\u2019t influenec a voter.  And two, not many people will admit it\u2019s the \u201cmost important,\u201d even if it is.  Also, it will be critical for Deeds to come out with an ad that says \u201cBob McDonnell says his views on women have changed.  Then why did he introduce 34 bills restricting abortion while he was in the House of Delegates \u2013 which he was until only four years ago?\u201d One of the focus group participants mention that what McDonnell wrote 20 years ago isn\u2019t as inportnat as what he did.  Thirty-four anti-women bills is what he did.<\/p>\n

Deeds is running less than I had hoped in rural Virginia.  With his slight drawl and gun rights\u2019 votes, I thought he could peel off some of the Republican\u2019s natural support.  Maybe spending mor time down there might help.  Maybe he can talk about how he wants to ensure we have enouigh revenues for schools down there and pojtn ot that McDonnell\u2019s transportation plan would cripple their schools.  MAybe he could talk about the economic development he wants to bring to those areas, suggesting that he might lure some of NOVA\u2019s business to those areas of the state.<\/p>\n

If we have a healthcare bill signed by November, adn if the talk in DC is about strong financial reforms, we might see an uptick in enthusiasm by Democratic voters and a better response from independnet moderates.<\/p>\n

The sidebar<\/a> that discusses the focus groups incldues this intersting statement.<\/p>\n

\n

Many in both groups described traffic as their top concern — perhaps reinforced by the rush-hour traffic they battled to get to the Wednesday evening focus group meetings in Fairfax. But several expressed a deep cynicism about their political leaders’ ability and will to solve the region’s congestion issues. Some were worried that Deeds, as a native of western Virginia, would not be sympathetic enough to the transit needs of Northern Virginia. <\/p>\n

\u2026The economy and jobs are voters’ top concerns in the election, according to the new poll, but few in the focus groups expressed a strong view on which candidate could better lead the state out of its economic doldrums. Lisa Schumann, 36, of Bristow said, "I think that I need more information to say." She also wondered how much a governor could do to make a difference. <\/em><\/strong>[emphasis added]<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

Here is where Deeds has even more possibilities.  I\u2019ll bet he would get a bump of five percent in Northern Virginia if we would talk honestly about taxes to improve transportation.  I\u2019ve already written about how he could frame this<\/a>.  I\u2019m under no illusion that he will tak honestly about transportation funding, as I\u2019m sure he\u2019s hearing an earful from spineless Democrats who are telling him he shouldn\u2019t go near the issue. <\/p>\n

Deeds could also make the link between what a Democratic governor can get from a Democratic administration in terms of new jobs and the race.  Fact is governors can\u2019t do a whole lot to help the state besides give away the store in terms of tax advantages to companies who bring business here.  What we give away and what we gain in new jobs can be debated.  Moreover, I\u2019m not so sure that tax relief wins the day when a business and their workers can\u2019t get around the state because of traffic.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The Deeds folks are no doubt celebrating this morning\u2019s Washington Post poll that shows him narrowing the race for Virginia governor.  His attacks on McDonnell\u2019s extreme right-wing views are working.  Let\u2019s pause for a moment and relish this development:  Democrats gain by pointing out the values of conservatives.  We\u2019ve come a long way, baby. Deeds… Read More<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[37,93,95],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/griendling.com\/wordpress1\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/188"}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/griendling.com\/wordpress1\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/griendling.com\/wordpress1\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/griendling.com\/wordpress1\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/griendling.com\/wordpress1\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=188"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"http:\/\/griendling.com\/wordpress1\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/188\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/griendling.com\/wordpress1\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=188"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/griendling.com\/wordpress1\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=188"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/griendling.com\/wordpress1\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=188"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}