…courtesy of MyDD.com, as of 4:00 pm

———-NV CO NC PA OH FL MI NM WI
Kerry 48 46 49 54 50 50 51 50 51
Bush 50 53 51 45 49 49 47 48 46

Both Drudge and MyDD have good news re exit polling. Kerry has a lead in many of the swing states. As Kos cautions, however, the exit polls were off in 2002, and Drudge says early voters skew feminine, a stronger gender than those knee-jerk he-men.

I’m having formatting problems. But click hear to see chart

But look at Pennsylvania, Ohio, Minnesota, Wisconsin and New Hampshire.

Cross your fingers. Hold your breath. Make a sacrifice to the gods. But hold on, he’s comin’!

Larry Sabato has “medium” confidence that Bush will carry the Commonwealth. But my precinct was swamped. Best turnout I’ve seen in 15 years that I’ve lived there. About a 25 minute wait.

Last election it went for Bush 53-43-3% with 76% turnout. Veteran Democratic poll watcher says this year the turnout is huge. I work the polls this afternoon and hope to have a read on how this precinct goes. It’s been moving Democratic in some local races.

USA Today has a profile of Jon Stewart, except that Stewart refused to be interview, fearing he’s getting overexposed. Point well taken. But his impact is clear.

The accolades are as ubiquitous as he is. Stewart’s effectiveness as a political humorist is akin to Will Rogers “and probably two or three others in the last 100 years,” says Darryl Paulson, a political scientist at the University of South Florida.

“There have been days when I see what they’ve done and I say, ‘Wow, he’s the best media critic I know,’ ” says Tom Rosenstiel, director of the Project for Excellence in Journalism. This year, the Television Critics Association gave Stewart’s show, a five-time Emmy winner, its award for best news and information program. And this from Tom Brokaw: “He sees that the emperor has no clothes, and some of the mainstream media don’t have the same 20/20 vision.” Watching his show is “a little like watching Seinfeld. You just can’t get enough.”

There’s a special live edition of The Daily Show tonight at 10:00 EST, an hour earlier and 30 minutes longer than usual.

Ohio GOP is granted right to challenge, i.e., intimidate, voters.

The latest Richmond Times-Dispatch poll has Governor Mark warner’s approval rating at 61%. Not shabby for a Dem. in what is supposed to be a rock solid Red state.

But I think it’s less so and may surprise a few folks tomorrow. Clearly, Kerry has an uphill battle here. A Mason-Dixon poll in the last week of October had Bush up by 6%. That’s within what I call the MOMTIONV — margin of misrepresenting the impact of new voters. We’ll see.

But the long-term view is very encouraging. I talked with someone recently about the turnout at town hall meetings on taxes last winter. Though sympathetic, he was of a mindset that that was an organized effort led by Mame Reilly, Warner’s PAC director, and therefore discounted it. But the RTD poll also found that a clear majority of Virginians – 56% — say the tax increase was necessary. Only 21% — one on five – say it wasn’t; the rest are undecided. It seems the anti-tax crowd is dying a slow death.

Here in Fairfax County, the Fairfax County Taxpayer Alliance has posted road signs saying “Bonds=Taxes” and urging a vote against park and transportation bonds. The FCTA was helped by a Washington Post story the other day of a Club for Growth TV ad that’s run lately against the bonds. We’ll see how that goes.

With no party registration, we rely on self-identification. And the RTD polls say GOPers enjoy a 31—27% margin over Dems. That leaves over 40% independent. If you say that the lion’s share of the 21% who opposed the taxes are GOPers, there is room aplenty for Dems and more moderate voices to be heard in the next General Assembly session – and in the 2005 House of Delegates elections.

Dirty tricks, including some that used to circulate as jokes (Dems vote one day, GOPers another), are rampant this year, and most are designed to favor Republicans. Of course, the local GOP official will deplore such tactics and suggest that Dems are actually behind them to discredit the GOP. But clearly, the Republicans are committing the vast majority of such fraudulent activities.

Yet Howard Kurtz can’t bring himself to admit it in his online discussion today.

New York, N.Y.: Dear Mr. Kurtz: My disappointment in the performance of the press both during the runup to the war and now, during the election, is profound. I no longer trust you guys at all.

Here’s one reason: you’ve got case after case, in state after state, of clear, specific, readily verifiable instances of Republican attempts to suppress the vote, tamper with the voting process, and perpetrate fraud on the electorate–and on the other side, frivolous Republican accusations about Dem voter misregistration, which don’t hold up under scrutiny.

I think the organized Republican effort to throw the election by fraudulent means is a national scandal and a disgrace, and newsworthy in its own right.

The media’s take? A glib, “Both Sides Do It!”

Do you personally know of any SPECIFIC instances where Democrats are deliberately perpetrating election fraud? And if not, can you explain to me the media’s fondness for providing “balance” where there actually is none? In what way is the public’s interest being served here?

Howard Kurtz: I bet I can guess which side of the electoral divide you’re on. I happen to think the reporting in this area has been pretty good. While the Republicans in some states have been very aggressive in trying to intimidate or restrict or knock off potential voters who are probably Democrats, there have been some instances of real voter fraud as well — people like Mary Poppins voting, votes being traded for crack cocaine, and so on. It’s our job to look at both sides.

Kurtz wouldn’t know balanced reporting if it smacked his GOP operative wife upside the head.

Two Ohio judges put a big crimp in GOP plans to intimidate voters. One judge said Ohio’s law allowing challenges was unconstitutional, and another judge said only poll workers could challenge a voter’s rights.

“In light of these extraordinary circumstances, and the contentious nature of the imminent election, the court cannot and must not turn a blind eye to the substantial likelihood that significant harm will result not only to voters, but also to the voting process itself, if appointed challengers are permitted at the polls,” [U.S. District Judge John Adams of Akron] said.

Eight marines died in fighting today west of Baghdad, making it the most lethal in six months.

A car bomb killed at least seven people in attack on an Arab television network in the capital, and Iraqi troops fired wildly on civilian vehicles, killing at least 14 people, witnesses and hospital officials said.

The U.S. military said nine Marines were also wounded in the fighting in Anbar province west of the capital which includes the insurgent stronghold of Fallujah. The statement gave no further on how or where they were killed.

It was the most U.S. deaths on a single day since May 2, when nine U.S. troops died in separate mortar attacks and roadside bombings in Baghdad, Ramadi and Kirkuk.

The deaths came as U.S. forces are gearing up for a major assault on Fallujah, seen as the toughest bastion of Sunni Muslim guerrillas, ahead of crucial elections due by Jan. 31.

This can’t be good news for Bush.

And I agree with Josh Marshall: Dems need to stop worrying about the bin Laden tape. Stick with the plan and Kerry will get 55% of the vote.

After reading of pollster John Zogby’s suggestion that Bush is in trouble because he can’t get more than 48% of the vote and looked at Thursday night’s Jon Stewart show. When asked who would win the race, he didn’t hesitate: “Kerry.”

Keep the faith!

And there’s plenty of reason to be optimistic. In Florida, the Dems are turning out the vote.

There are no statewide totals of early voters, and votes will not be counted until polls close on Election Day. But some counties have made numbers available, and Democrats appear to be considerably outstripping Republicans in turnout — significantly, in the belt of counties across the state’s midsection, from St. Petersburg to Orlando, the prime battleground for swing voters.

In Orange County, home to Orlando with a 5 percent Democratic edge in registration, 50,839 early votes had been cast by Friday morning — 48 percent of them Democrats and 33 percent Republicans. In Pinellas County, home to St. Petersburg, where Republicans have a slight edge in registration, Democrats have a slight edge in early voters. In heavily Democratic Broward County, almost 130,000 votes were cast, with no party breakdown; and in Miami-Dade, almost 180,000.

Mindy Tucker Fletcher, a GOP strategist, said the Democratic advantage in early voters is irrelevant because Republicans have a bigger advantage in absentee ballots.

But Colleen Murphy, a Republican official in Orange County, posted an alarmist message on the party’s Web site about the intensity and numbers of Democrats casting early ballots there.

“I want to tell you, it’s been a culture shock,” she wrote. “If you don’t get yourselves out of your routines and your comfort zones and do what is necessary to support the president between now and November 2, I’m afraid we’re all in for a little culture shock that will last beyond the next four years.”

Bushies are clearly worried. Given the turnout already, they should be. (same story)

According to the University of Pennsylvania’s National Annenberg Election Survey, 14 percent of voters had cast absentee ballots or voted by Wednesday, and an additional 11 percent said they would vote before Tuesday. In 2000, 13 percent voted before Election Day.

I still think Kerry is in the running in Virginia. GOTV!

And you tell me. Doesn’t there seem to be a lot of young people in this line waiting to vote. They will make the difference. And they should: It’s their future at stake.

Daily Kos has uncovered a bit of perspective. In late October 2000, the CNN tracking poll had the race Bush 52%, Gore 39% and Nader 4%. Not let me try to remember how that race turned out.

And pollster John Zogby on the Post’s discussion forum today.

I don’t have a crystal ball I just have a hunch based on my numbers. And I still think that an incumbent president polling 48 or under nationally and in key states in trouble. The burden is still on John Kerry to persuade the undecideds but if history is any judge undecideds break against the incumbent.

Zogby’s tracking poll: Kerry & Bush at 47%.

Vote!