The autopsy concluded that Terri Schiavo that was really, truly dead.

I commented on another blog that talk of how Byrne helps or hurts Kaine ignores the fact that voters can vote for one and not the other. Larry Sabato agrees:

“The running mates don’t matter that much. People vote for governor. Both parties have failed in the past when they try to link the whole ticket together. It just doesn’t work,” Sabato said. “I think both Kaine and Kilgore are both relatively relaxed. They know it doesn’t matter very much They sink or swim on their own with the exception of coattail.”

Turnout is even more important in NoVa. That’s where Byrne can help herself and Kaine.

…if Joe May, now secure in his reelection, will retaliate to Dick Black’s active support for May’s primary opponent.

Some Democrats are wringing their hands over Leslie Byrnes nomination for Lt. Governor. And as I suggested last night, even though they admit less than stellar results, some conservatives think that by raising the tax issue, they won a victory. (Read the comments.) That’s like saying that because you can field a team that gets trounced, you are somehow a winner.

Regarding Byrne, she has a lot to overcome. The impression many have is that she is somehow arrogant. She’s never struck me that way. But then except for a couple of conversations, I don’t have any greater knowledge of her demeanor than the average voter. The deciding factors will be how she handles herself in public, what strategy she employs and how the media characterizes her. If I were her, I’d be battling the media from day one whenever they write off the race and a classic fight between liberals and conservatives. She’s got to get reporters to focus on issues.

In fact, she has an opportunity to test some new positioning. I’ve heard she’s done it in some speeches, talking about Democratic values in a different way. At the very least, she’s not afraid of talking about values. Unlike Kaine, however, she seem true to Democratic principles. I’d like her to really focus on GOP women. As the only woman on the statewide tickets, she can appeal to GOP women who worry about abortion being outlawed and are turned off by the GOP’s rhetoric of intolerance. She might get traction focusing on higher ed and its accessibility. Higher income families worry that their kids can’t get into the best schools and lower income families worry that their kids can’t afford it. I don’t know if she can be a nurturing mama but it’s worth a shot. Turnout in NOVA will be the critical factor.

I worry that Kaine’s candidacy will suppress turnout. Nobody I talk to seems excited about him.

If indeed taxes are not the issue with an overriding majority of voters, what then drives them in November? For the conservative middle, if it isn’t gays or abortion, then what? That’s the critical question Kaine has to ask himself. Transportation and land use certainly are important to the metro areas, but what about the rural ones? Again, it may be education. Clearly a college degree is more important than ever. Can the Dems craft some compelling policies that provide opportunities for all? And can they acknowledge and address the values of those who find our coarsening culture offensive, without sounding condescending, opportunistic or censorial? That to me is an intriguing challenge. One can’t help reading stories like this, without thinking that TV, CDs, movies and a generally permissive society are breeding a generation of moral degenerates. But because liberals oppose censorship shouldn’t mean we can’t call upon purveyors of such trash for responsibility. Even if government can’t provide the solution, that doesn’t mean politicians shouldn’t join the chorus.

Responsible spending can still be an attractive issue, but Dems haven’t figured out how to talk about it, much less provide solutions, without sounding anti-tax. Maybe a “five-point plan” to control spending would be helpful.

But the bottom line message of yesterday’s election is that people are turned off to the current political dialogue. Turnout was less than the pessimistic predictions. And it’s responsible articulation that might engage them. That’s where Potts comes in. Even though he hasn’t offered any specifics, his “pox on both their houses” message might resonate enough with moderate GOPers and Dems alike to hurt Kaine/Byrne/Deeds. And keep in mind that money didn’t seem to matter. Petersen far outraised his opponents, but lost to two women in this paternalistic state. Connaughton lost badly despite a dead heat in money. Baril’s strong donations from business groups didn’t seem to level the playing field. Enough money is important. Winning the dollar race doesn’t translate to victory, however. I hope party officials and strategists learn that lesson.

Of course, it may not be message and platform, either. Organization comes into play (see Englin and Craddock).

But for the Dems, poor turnout means defeat. It’s time to take some risks.

As widely echoed by Dems, thank our lucky starts Connaughton lost. He’d be governor in 2010. Which may not be a bad thing, but the Dems would surely lose.

How many stories can The Washington Post use one analyst in one day? Today’s answer: three. Mike Shear, Peter Whoriskey and Rosalind S. Helderman all quoted George Mason professor Mark Rozell in their stories. His insights:

“Both candidates [for the Republcian nomination for Lieutenant Governor] have been running really far to the right,” said Mark J. Rozell, a professor of public policy at George Mason University.

George Mason University public policy professor Mark J. Rozell said Byrne appealed to “the more true-believer types” who dominate a Democratic primary. “The activist core tends to be much more liberal than the general election base.”

“The races are somewhat a test case of how viable this anti-tax movement can be,” said Mark J. Rozell, a professor of public policy at George Mason University and co-editor of “The New Politics of the Old South: An Introduction to Southern Politics.” “If we judge them by the criterion of winning primaries, we ultimately may judge them failures after tonight. If the criterion is their ability to foster debate and send a signal to incumbents, they might be considered successful.”

Gee, all of those thoughts caught me completely by surprise. What astute perceptions! (The last one seems a particularly contorted stretch to keep the tax battle alive and will no doubt be used by reporters to justify the same angles through November.)

How lazy can one newspaper collectively be to quote the same guy in three stories with comments that a reasonable intelligent seventh grader could make? This is not to bash Rozell. I’m sure he works very hard to get himself quoted: good for the school; good for him. But why can’t reporters expand their Rolodex beyond a half dozen poli sci professors? Many bloggers have had more astute comments over the past few days. Why not call upon them? Even if they are generally partisan, I think the chance of getting insight is probably better with those closer to the ground.

McEachin (Wilder) beats Miles (Warner) by 48.

If the media calls the House races in November referenda on taxes, somebody ought to take them out to the woodshed. Only Reese fell to Craddock. Now we can expect the Dems to come up with someone to challenge Craddock, whose youth and religious fervor ought to horrify more mainstream Republicans and Democrats alike.

Otherwise, this is a big loss for Americans for Tax Reform’s Grover Norquist, James Parmelee, who leads the Virginia office of GOPUSA, and Arthur Purves, the Fairfax anti-tax crusader who actually was on the Republican primary ballot to challenge Steve Shannon. The anti-tax crowd suffered big losses but don’t expect to hear that from them, or probably the press tomorrow. There will be some who think that Craddock’s victory alone is enough to cheer the “it’s my money and I want to keep it” crowd. But when they try to spin it, smile and repeat: “Say goodnight, Gracie.”

The only cliffhanger right now is the Democratic primary in the 74th: two precincts yet to report and a 10 vote difference. It’s a Warner vs. Wilder battle, they say.

The Fairfax election site has totals for its races that haven’t made it to the state site.

Correction: Apparently the Dems have a candidate to challenge Craddock: Chuck Caputo. They’ve done a good job of hiding him.

Otherwise, it’s Kaine/Byrne & Deeds vs. Kilgore/Bolling & McDonnell.

Reports are of a light voter turnout. If my precinct is any indication, it will be abysmal. The Olde Creek precinct had an 80% percent turnout (1,953 votes) last November. By 10:00 this morning, usually our busiest period, we had about 60, 2-1 Democratic, as opposed to our 5-vote margin for Kerry. If we double that total, we’re at 5%, and we’re an 80% district. Can’t read much into these numbers, except there’s not much to read, period. I tended to nod off during my poll watching job.

Do people care? Do people know? A neighbor with whom I’ve had spirited and enlightened, though not contentious, email exchanges on national politics showed up and was surprised to learn it wasn’t a general election. Now if he doesn’t have a clue were in trouble.

If the vote were held today, I’d be tempted to vote for Russ Potts. I think so would The Post’s Marc Fisher.

Jerry Kilgore says Lt. Gov. Tim Kaine, Democratic candidate for Virginia’s top job, is making fun of his down-home accent.

Kaine says Kilgore, the GOP hopeful and former attorney general, is hiring “slick radio announcers” rather than speaking directly to voters on radio ads.

After four years of having an adult as governor, the Republican and Democratic parties have decided that Virginians crave a return to childhood, back to fantasies about providing quality education while slicing budgets and concocting magical solutions to traffic without new revenue.

Who wants to eliminate the car tax? Everybody! Wheee!

Kilgore emphasizes such pressing state issues as the death penalty (expand it), the gun culture (celebrate it) and the gay agenda (it’s insidious).

A Kilgore radio ad you’re not likely to hear in the D.C. area boasts that “Kilgore has made his decisions based on the Christian values he learned growing up in rural Southwest Virginia — conservative values . . . standing up for the sanctity of marriage, fighting pornography. . . .”

Kaine, fighting his party’s free-spending reputation, devoted his first TV issues ad to his promise to cut taxes. Kaine is trying to appeal to all sides on social issues by contrasting his personal opinions with his obligations in office. He opposes the death penalty, but he’ll enforce it. He opposes abortion, but he’ll respect the law.

Perfect place to introduce Russ Potts. Potts….”We’re cobbling together the strangest doggarnedest coalition Virginia’s ever seen,” says Potts, 68. “Women who are tired of the extremist Republican position on abortion. People who admire Mark Warner for taking on issues head on. People who know there’s no free lunch.”

He’s pro-environment, pro-immigrant, anti-Wal-Mart. He proposes to put everything on the table to improve the traffic mess — a gas tax increase, more rail, HOV lanes, privately built roads. “No sacred cows.”

He is convinced that voters will not automatically rush to whomever promises to cut taxes the most. “The far-right crowd, the extremists in my party, are going to find out that Virginians value cherished institutions like higher education, and people know they have to pay for it.

“Weicker told me the most dangerous person in a race is the one who’s not afraid to lose,” Potts adds. “I’m not afraid of losing, and I say what I believe. I am adamantly for the death penalty. We already have laws on the books that fully address the gay issue. That’s not even in the top 10 of people’s issues. Leave it alone. People in Virginia are fed up with the Republican Party’s anti-schools, anti-transportation, anti-gays — goodness, what aren’t they anti?”

There have been no reasons for Kilgore and Kaine to worry about the nomination, so don’t expect anything different after today. If you think I’m crazy, I heard from one source that Sen. Dick Saslaw, the minority leader in the Senate, told a public forum recently that he liked Potts, as in he could be a credible governor, not that he was a nice guy. He said he supported Kaine, but more comments like that and a lot of Republicans and Democrats will give Potts a hard look. Absent any overriding issue, why not? And he’ll look better if the kids keep throwing sand in the play box and calling each other names.

Tomorrow’s the day everyone will learn if taxes are the most important issue to Virginia voters. At least that’s what the media wants you to think.

Problem is, no matter happens tomorrow it will A) not tell us about voter mood because so few of them will show up, and B) not stop the media from harping on taxes.

A, because even if one or two of the anti-tax zealots win their primaries, will we really know that taxes were the issues? In the 67th district race where Gary Reese is widely suspected of being the most vulnerable of the incumbent “Gang of 17” Republicans who voted for the 2004 tax increase, his opponent Chris Craddock has harped on social issues as much as taxes. So will his election be a victory for bigotry or fiscal irresponsibility? It’s hard to tell.

But even if all the challenges fail, don’t expect Kaine and Kilgore to alter their “I’m for lowering taxes” mantra to change through the campaign. They know that the media are collectively too lazy not to harp on the taxes story. It’s convenient and measurable. Not only can you paint races as a choice between high taxes and low taxes, but you can even measure how high and how low, and without the bother of what that truly means.

And there are groups that won’t let the media focus on anything else. They know that the best way to work the media is to do the work for them. Give reporters all the facts and figures, even if the facts aren’t true and the figures lie, and most reporters will go on merrily regurgitating the press releases and dutifully quote the other side, if there is another side to taxes. Certainly Tim Kaine hasn’t led us to believe that there is another side to Kilgore’s call for tax cuts.

So Washington Post reporter Mike Shear gets front page real estate to lead us all to believe that taxes is the over-arching issue.

Virginia’s state politicians will face the voters Tuesday for the first time since the historic battle over taxes in 2004, competing in primary campaigns that are testing the depth of the public’s anger over that fight and its willingness to accept higher taxes for more public services.

Margaret Edds thinks candidates are too scared.

Political campaigns in Virginia are stuck in a mode that says: Don’t chance it with voters. After former Gov. Jim Gilmore swept to victory in 1997 on a three-word plank — “No Car Tax” — few candidates want to risk messing with the framework.

It’s safer to join the pack than to try to connect the dots between low taxes and clogged roads, low taxes and a polluted Chesapeake Bay, low taxes and below-average teacher pay. Until some daredevil wins by elevating collectivism over self-interest, don’t expect a change.

Maybe change should start with the media. Maybe if they gave us more articles that said what most people already know: the debate shouldn’t start with how much it costs — either for taxes or what they can buy — until we start looking at the problems more deeply than journalists fear to tread. What do we want from government?

The real number to look at is not who wins by how much but by how little. Most pundits are predicting a 10% turnout, abysmal enough. If a challenger can’t get more people than that excited, I wouldn’t read much into it. If it’s significantly less, I think the message is clear: a pox on both your houses.

Good column today by Richard Cohen.

Note that the ADL has stepped in, at least in the Air Force Academy case. Maybe I’ve missed it but there hasn’t seemed to be enough outrage from the Jewish community over the Dominionists. In fact, some Jews have formed alliances with the Dominionists. After you read this post, make sure you read the comment.

Still, I hope more Jews get vocal on the regressives push for Christian domination.