Leaving Money On the Table

In a post yesterday, I pointed out that Gov. Kaine won at least nine Virginia House of Delegates districts where the Democrats didn’t even put up an opponent.  That’s inexcusable.  Do you think the GOP won back the House by not putting up candidates?

Those unopposed candidates raised about $1.6 million last cycle that they didn’t have to spend to defend themselves and instead could give to other candidates.  In all, 33 GOP delegates were unopposed in ’05.  They raised $4.37 million dollars.

Here’s the data:

Those highlighted in green are the districts Kaine won.  (I ignored Potts’ votes in determining percentages and didn’t include absentee votes.)  The five districts in beige are those where Kaine came within 5 points of beating Kilgore; those in yellow are where the governor came within 10 points.  And yet, the Democrats did not challenge any of these Republicans.  I’m not saying that Dems could have won any of these districts.  But they’ll never get to a majority if they don’t put up candidates!

The first candidate may be sacrificial, or they could become delegates the second time around, but in any case, these GOP members need to be softened for the kill.  Does the caucus have the capability to recruit candidates.  The will, perhaps, but clearly it’s not doing the job it should be. 

There were about a dozen new Democratic delegates elected in ’05.  Perhaps they need to be tasked with the recruitment responsibility.  They have the most current and realistic experience, not to mention credibility, to make them effective recruiters.

Why? Several things:

1. Leadership. The Democrats in the Assembly — at least in the House — are deferential to the governor’s office.  But by one of his senior aide’s own admission, Tim Kaine did not use this past election to build the party.  Maybe he will now, but he’s gone in four years.  Delegates can be there for decades.  Shouldn’t they take the lead?

2. Recruitment. Party officials haven’t been successful in recruiting candidates.  There’s new blood there now.  Maybe they can do a better job.  However, the reason there’s new blood is because there’s a new governor.  Which means in four years, they’ll be another new team to start over again.  And because the party doesn’t pay great salaries, it’s hard to get seasoned individuals who will stick around. 

3. Myopia of money.  There seems to be a sense that all it takes to win an election is money.  And the only way to spend that money is during the actual delegate campaign, 90% of it in October and November and most of it on mailers, robo calls and polls.  There is little investment upfront in seeding the ground for Democratic candidates by developing messages, policies and positions that resonate with voters.  Sure it’s true that most voters don’t start thinking about the campaigns until a few weeks before the election, but they think about issues for a long time.  Shouldn’t some of the money be spent in developing them?

4. “Consensunitis.” Best I can tell, the Democrats are so fearful of upsetting certain interest groups, they can’t do anything unless they have consensus.  Having talked privately with several Republican delegates, I can tell you they don’t have consensus, but they have solidarity.  Granted, the GOP has the power of retribution on its caucus that Democrats really don’t, being in the minority.  But other than Johnny Joannou, where are those who lose on an issue going to go if they don’t get their way.  Someone needs to step up and lead.

5. Fear of Failure.  Democrats don’t seem to want to rock the GOP boat that is listing badly.  The adage that when you’re opponent is self-destructing, the best offense is to get out of the way seems to drive them to distraction.  But to unseat an incumbent, you’ve got to more than just wound him, you’ve got to destroy him and paint yourself as a hero.  But in 33 races last year, the Dems didn’t even have a warm body, much less a hero.