McEachin (Wilder) beats Miles (Warner) by 48.

If the media calls the House races in November referenda on taxes, somebody ought to take them out to the woodshed. Only Reese fell to Craddock. Now we can expect the Dems to come up with someone to challenge Craddock, whose youth and religious fervor ought to horrify more mainstream Republicans and Democrats alike.

Otherwise, this is a big loss for Americans for Tax Reform’s Grover Norquist, James Parmelee, who leads the Virginia office of GOPUSA, and Arthur Purves, the Fairfax anti-tax crusader who actually was on the Republican primary ballot to challenge Steve Shannon. The anti-tax crowd suffered big losses but don’t expect to hear that from them, or probably the press tomorrow. There will be some who think that Craddock’s victory alone is enough to cheer the “it’s my money and I want to keep it” crowd. But when they try to spin it, smile and repeat: “Say goodnight, Gracie.”

The only cliffhanger right now is the Democratic primary in the 74th: two precincts yet to report and a 10 vote difference. It’s a Warner vs. Wilder battle, they say.

The Fairfax election site has totals for its races that haven’t made it to the state site.

Correction: Apparently the Dems have a candidate to challenge Craddock: Chuck Caputo. They’ve done a good job of hiding him.

Otherwise, it’s Kaine/Byrne & Deeds vs. Kilgore/Bolling & McDonnell.

Reports are of a light voter turnout. If my precinct is any indication, it will be abysmal. The Olde Creek precinct had an 80% percent turnout (1,953 votes) last November. By 10:00 this morning, usually our busiest period, we had about 60, 2-1 Democratic, as opposed to our 5-vote margin for Kerry. If we double that total, we’re at 5%, and we’re an 80% district. Can’t read much into these numbers, except there’s not much to read, period. I tended to nod off during my poll watching job.

Do people care? Do people know? A neighbor with whom I’ve had spirited and enlightened, though not contentious, email exchanges on national politics showed up and was surprised to learn it wasn’t a general election. Now if he doesn’t have a clue were in trouble.

If the vote were held today, I’d be tempted to vote for Russ Potts. I think so would The Post’s Marc Fisher.

Jerry Kilgore says Lt. Gov. Tim Kaine, Democratic candidate for Virginia’s top job, is making fun of his down-home accent.

Kaine says Kilgore, the GOP hopeful and former attorney general, is hiring “slick radio announcers” rather than speaking directly to voters on radio ads.

After four years of having an adult as governor, the Republican and Democratic parties have decided that Virginians crave a return to childhood, back to fantasies about providing quality education while slicing budgets and concocting magical solutions to traffic without new revenue.

Who wants to eliminate the car tax? Everybody! Wheee!

Kilgore emphasizes such pressing state issues as the death penalty (expand it), the gun culture (celebrate it) and the gay agenda (it’s insidious).

A Kilgore radio ad you’re not likely to hear in the D.C. area boasts that “Kilgore has made his decisions based on the Christian values he learned growing up in rural Southwest Virginia — conservative values . . . standing up for the sanctity of marriage, fighting pornography. . . .”

Kaine, fighting his party’s free-spending reputation, devoted his first TV issues ad to his promise to cut taxes. Kaine is trying to appeal to all sides on social issues by contrasting his personal opinions with his obligations in office. He opposes the death penalty, but he’ll enforce it. He opposes abortion, but he’ll respect the law.

Perfect place to introduce Russ Potts. Potts….”We’re cobbling together the strangest doggarnedest coalition Virginia’s ever seen,” says Potts, 68. “Women who are tired of the extremist Republican position on abortion. People who admire Mark Warner for taking on issues head on. People who know there’s no free lunch.”

He’s pro-environment, pro-immigrant, anti-Wal-Mart. He proposes to put everything on the table to improve the traffic mess — a gas tax increase, more rail, HOV lanes, privately built roads. “No sacred cows.”

He is convinced that voters will not automatically rush to whomever promises to cut taxes the most. “The far-right crowd, the extremists in my party, are going to find out that Virginians value cherished institutions like higher education, and people know they have to pay for it.

“Weicker told me the most dangerous person in a race is the one who’s not afraid to lose,” Potts adds. “I’m not afraid of losing, and I say what I believe. I am adamantly for the death penalty. We already have laws on the books that fully address the gay issue. That’s not even in the top 10 of people’s issues. Leave it alone. People in Virginia are fed up with the Republican Party’s anti-schools, anti-transportation, anti-gays — goodness, what aren’t they anti?”

There have been no reasons for Kilgore and Kaine to worry about the nomination, so don’t expect anything different after today. If you think I’m crazy, I heard from one source that Sen. Dick Saslaw, the minority leader in the Senate, told a public forum recently that he liked Potts, as in he could be a credible governor, not that he was a nice guy. He said he supported Kaine, but more comments like that and a lot of Republicans and Democrats will give Potts a hard look. Absent any overriding issue, why not? And he’ll look better if the kids keep throwing sand in the play box and calling each other names.

Tomorrow’s the day everyone will learn if taxes are the most important issue to Virginia voters. At least that’s what the media wants you to think.

Problem is, no matter happens tomorrow it will A) not tell us about voter mood because so few of them will show up, and B) not stop the media from harping on taxes.

A, because even if one or two of the anti-tax zealots win their primaries, will we really know that taxes were the issues? In the 67th district race where Gary Reese is widely suspected of being the most vulnerable of the incumbent “Gang of 17” Republicans who voted for the 2004 tax increase, his opponent Chris Craddock has harped on social issues as much as taxes. So will his election be a victory for bigotry or fiscal irresponsibility? It’s hard to tell.

But even if all the challenges fail, don’t expect Kaine and Kilgore to alter their “I’m for lowering taxes” mantra to change through the campaign. They know that the media are collectively too lazy not to harp on the taxes story. It’s convenient and measurable. Not only can you paint races as a choice between high taxes and low taxes, but you can even measure how high and how low, and without the bother of what that truly means.

And there are groups that won’t let the media focus on anything else. They know that the best way to work the media is to do the work for them. Give reporters all the facts and figures, even if the facts aren’t true and the figures lie, and most reporters will go on merrily regurgitating the press releases and dutifully quote the other side, if there is another side to taxes. Certainly Tim Kaine hasn’t led us to believe that there is another side to Kilgore’s call for tax cuts.

So Washington Post reporter Mike Shear gets front page real estate to lead us all to believe that taxes is the over-arching issue.

Virginia’s state politicians will face the voters Tuesday for the first time since the historic battle over taxes in 2004, competing in primary campaigns that are testing the depth of the public’s anger over that fight and its willingness to accept higher taxes for more public services.

Margaret Edds thinks candidates are too scared.

Political campaigns in Virginia are stuck in a mode that says: Don’t chance it with voters. After former Gov. Jim Gilmore swept to victory in 1997 on a three-word plank — “No Car Tax” — few candidates want to risk messing with the framework.

It’s safer to join the pack than to try to connect the dots between low taxes and clogged roads, low taxes and a polluted Chesapeake Bay, low taxes and below-average teacher pay. Until some daredevil wins by elevating collectivism over self-interest, don’t expect a change.

Maybe change should start with the media. Maybe if they gave us more articles that said what most people already know: the debate shouldn’t start with how much it costs — either for taxes or what they can buy — until we start looking at the problems more deeply than journalists fear to tread. What do we want from government?

The real number to look at is not who wins by how much but by how little. Most pundits are predicting a 10% turnout, abysmal enough. If a challenger can’t get more people than that excited, I wouldn’t read much into it. If it’s significantly less, I think the message is clear: a pox on both your houses.

Good column today by Richard Cohen.

Note that the ADL has stepped in, at least in the Air Force Academy case. Maybe I’ve missed it but there hasn’t seemed to be enough outrage from the Jewish community over the Dominionists. In fact, some Jews have formed alliances with the Dominionists. After you read this post, make sure you read the comment.

Still, I hope more Jews get vocal on the regressives push for Christian domination.

Janet Oleszek is running for the Democratic nod for the seat being vacated by Chap Petersen. But by the flyer she just mailed out, you’d think she’s aiming much higher. She will “fight to”:

*Make health insurance more affordable
*Extend coverage to the uninsured
*Increase the supply of health professionals

How, may I ask, does a state delegate do that?

The race for the GOP nomination for Lt. Guv. has Bill Bolling and Sean Connaughton trading charges about taxes. No surprise there. But for Connaughton, who is supported by Congressman Tom Davis and has potential to be an honest Republican, to have little conviction on taxes is disappointing.

Bolling accused Connaughton of supporting the tax increases that Gov. Mark R. Warner (D) and centrist Republicans pushed through the General Assembly in 2004.

Connaughton said he supported more money for his county but opposed the tax increases in light of the surging economy that was expected to generate more state revenue.

His transportation plan includes proposals to guarantee that the Transportation Trust Fund is spent exclusively on transportation while using budget surpluses to develop specific projects.

Great: another no-tax-hike-and-pay-for-roads-out-of-surplus-funds approach. How novel! (Watch me pull a rabbit out of my hat!)

Leave you guys alone for a week and look what happens. Russ Potts endorses George Fitch in the GOP gubernatorial primary, who says he’ll never raise taxes, while Potts promises he will. The Dems get a new leader with some fight in him, Tim Kaine wants to save the family farm (from itself, I guess) and Jerry Kilgore gets called a wimp by a resurrected pol.

Relaxed but not rested (pedaling those hills in the Rockies leaves one breathless), I’m back.

Interesting to see the distribution of funds from Governor Warner’s One Virginia PAC. Greg Werkheiser received the most at $15,000 for his race against Dave Albo in the 42nd district. Dave Marsden, who has no primary opponent and is an ex-Republican running to succeed Jim Dillard in the 41st district received $10,000. The same went to Paula Miller in her first general election campaign in the 81st district. Other challengers funded, all getting $5,000 checks, were Dave Poisson in the 32nd race against Dick “I hate homos and baby killers” Black, Earnie Porta, running against Mychele McQuigg in the 81st, Supriya Christopher, running for Bob McDonnell’s seat in the 84th and Bruce Roemmelt, for his fight against Bob Marshall in the 13th.

No report for or by Hilda Barg, running against Jeff Frederick in the 52nd. Maybe she’s just doing OK all by herself. I suspect her big check is in the mail.

Back soon. Share the Road.