The latest Richmond Times-Dispatch poll has Governor Mark warner’s approval rating at 61%. Not shabby for a Dem. in what is supposed to be a rock solid Red state.
But I think it’s less so and may surprise a few folks tomorrow. Clearly, Kerry has an uphill battle here. A Mason-Dixon poll in the last week of October had Bush up by 6%. That’s within what I call the MOMTIONV — margin of misrepresenting the impact of new voters. We’ll see.
But the long-term view is very encouraging. I talked with someone recently about the turnout at town hall meetings on taxes last winter. Though sympathetic, he was of a mindset that that was an organized effort led by Mame Reilly, Warner’s PAC director, and therefore discounted it. But the RTD poll also found that a clear majority of Virginians – 56% — say the tax increase was necessary. Only 21% — one on five – say it wasn’t; the rest are undecided. It seems the anti-tax crowd is dying a slow death.
Here in Fairfax County, the Fairfax County Taxpayer Alliance has posted road signs saying “Bonds=Taxes” and urging a vote against park and transportation bonds. The FCTA was helped by a Washington Post story the other day of a Club for Growth TV ad that’s run lately against the bonds. We’ll see how that goes.
With no party registration, we rely on self-identification. And the RTD polls say GOPers enjoy a 31—27% margin over Dems. That leaves over 40% independent. If you say that the lion’s share of the 21% who opposed the taxes are GOPers, there is room aplenty for Dems and more moderate voices to be heard in the next General Assembly session – and in the 2005 House of Delegates elections.